Shoppers are heading into a record-setting holiday season, according to forecasts from Adobe and Bain & Company. Black Friday falls on Friday, Nov. 27, 2026, and Cyber Monday on Monday, Nov. 30. Here is what the forecasts say, which dates matter, and how to avoid paying more than you need to.
What the forecasts say
Adobe, which tracks online transactions across U.S. retailers, projects that Americans will spend a record $275.1 billion online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2026, up 6.7% from last year. Its key day-level projections:
- Cyber Monday (Nov. 30): about $15.1 billion, up roughly 6.2%, which would keep it the biggest online shopping day of the year.
- Black Friday (Nov. 27): about $12.9 billion, up 9.2%. Adobe expects it to be the second-biggest online day and the fastest-growing of the major ones, helped by deep discounts on categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances.
- “Cyber Week” (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday): about $47.5 billion, up 7.4%.
- Buy now, pay later: about $21.3 billion of the season’s online spending.
Bain & Company, which looks at total retail rather than online sales alone, forecasts more than $85 billion in U.S. retail sales from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, growth of about 8.75%. That is nearly twice the pace it expects for the full holiday season (4.5%). The two sets of numbers are not directly comparable: Adobe counts online sales only, Bain counts all channels.
Markets take a break too: see whether the stock market is open on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Forecasts are projections, not results. Actual totals will be reported by Adobe and others in the days after Cyber Monday.
The dates to circle
| Date | Day | What |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 26 | Thursday | Thanksgiving. Many retailers open online sales and early in-store deals. |
| Nov. 27 | Friday | Black Friday |
| Nov. 28 | Saturday | Small Business Saturday |
| Nov. 30 | Monday | Cyber Monday |
| Dec. 1 | Tuesday | Giving Tuesday |
Many retailers now start “Black Friday” pricing in early November, so waiting for the day itself does not guarantee the lowest price. If you are traveling that week, see our guide to the best and worst days to travel for Thanksgiving 2026.
Seven rules for spotting a real deal
- Check price history, not the “was” price. A crossed-out original price can be inflated. Use a price tracker or look at the product’s price a month ago.
- Decide what you will buy before you see the ad. Make a short list with a maximum price for each item. Doorbusters are designed to pull you in for everything else.
- Compare model numbers. Some TVs, laptops and appliances sold during Black Friday are lower-spec versions made for the sale. The same brand and screen size can be a different model.
- Read the return policy. Holiday return windows are often extended, but some categories (opened electronics, final-sale items) are not. Keep the receipt and packaging.
- Be careful with buy now, pay later. It can be useful for budgeting, but missed payments can bring fees and several small plans can add up. Know the due dates before you click.
- Pay with a credit card, not a debit card, when you can. Card-network protections for disputed charges are generally stronger than for debit.
- Watch for scams. Fake shipping texts, look-alike store sites and “too good to be true” social ads spike this time of year. Type the retailer’s address yourself instead of tapping a link, and be wary of any site asking you to pay by gift card or wire transfer.
Should you wait for Cyber Monday?
Not necessarily. Adobe’s forecasts suggest the deepest discounts vary by category, with Black Friday expected to carry the biggest markdowns on items like TVs, apparel and appliances. Thanksgiving Day itself has historically been a strong day for some categories online. If a product you need is already at a price you would be happy to pay, waiting mostly adds the risk it sells out.
What this means for the economy
The size of the forecast matters beyond shopping. Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and with the Fed holding interest rates high and shoppers already cautious at Halloween, and holiday sales are a closely watched signal of how households are handling prices and borrowing. Luz News will report on the actual totals when they are released.
This article is general information, not financial advice. Forecast figures are as published in September 2026 and may be revised.
Sources
- Adobe Digital Insights: 2026 holiday shopping forecast
- National Retail Federation: holiday data and trends
Related on Luz News
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